{"F": {"ts_code": "000707.SZ", "name": "双环科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "纯碱", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970415", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.64, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.0001, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 271308.7808, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-0.7, 22.2, 28.4, 23.9, 16.7, 12.7], "rev_series": [17.8, 30.6, 43.6, 37.9, 28.9, 20.8], "np_series": [-4.8, 4.2, 8.7, 6.2, 2.8, -0.9], "roe_series": [null, 282.7, 84.9, 34.6, 12.6, -3.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.9, "np_ttm": -1.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 3.7, "ocf_yield": 7.7, "gm_median": 22.2, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": 0.75, "gm_chg_2022": 29.1, "npm_median": 13.8, "roe_median": 34.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 66.0, "fix_assets": 33.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.0, "capex_dep": 0.27, "interest_debt": 15.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 45.9, "debt_mv": 57.3, "payout": 20.3, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -21.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -9.9, "np_yoy": -649.1, "np_vol": 115.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["联碱及其他化工产品", 98.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -16.0, "ret_prev2_year": -6.3, "ret_ytd": -23.3, "ret_pivot": -25.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.3, "ret_60": 0.2, "ret_120": -31.6, "ret_250": -30.7, "mdd_250": -40.2, "vol_250": 28.6, "pos_52w": 67.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 100, "bondness": 38}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 46%,有息负债 16 亿,经营现金流/市值 7.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 66%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.2%,稳定度 75%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.7%(经营现金流/市值 7.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.2%,稳定度 75%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 29.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 66%,资本开支/折旧 0.27 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 0% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "双环科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.6个百分点。"]}}