{"F": {"ts_code": "000705.SZ", "name": "浙江震元", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医药商业", "sw3": "医药流通", "ind": "医药商业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970410", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.21, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.2429, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 240902.8993, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.4, 19.6, 18.2, 18.7, 18.8, 24.9], "rev_series": [34.4, 36.1, 41.5, 41.1, 37.4, 22.8], "np_series": [0.9, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 0.3, 0.2], "roe_series": [5.2, 4.3, 4.1, 4.2, 1.8, 1.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.6, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -2.2, "ocf_yield": 4.7, "gm_median": 18.8, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -3.2, "npm_median": 2.0, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.2, "fix_assets": 11.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.24, "capex_dep": 2.06, "interest_debt": 3.2, "debt_ebitda": 4.1, "debt_ratio": 32.6, "debt_mv": 13.1, "payout": 42.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -18.1, "np_cagr3": -33.7, "rev_yoy": -32.1, "np_yoy": -123.8, "np_vol": 23.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["商业-零售", 31.0], ["医药零售", 31.0], ["商业-批发", 6.0], ["医药批发", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.3, "ret_prev2_year": -27.1, "ret_ytd": -20.3, "ret_pivot": -5.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.5, "ret_60": 9.2, "ret_120": -21.4, "ret_250": -24.7, "mdd_250": -43.4, "vol_250": 29.4, "pos_52w": 69.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 61, "bondness": 47}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%,稳定度 87%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.8%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 2.06 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -25%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 9% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医药商业」32 家中位:PE 22.5 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 13.4% / 固定资产占比 7% / 分红率 38%。", "浙江震元:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 31.0个百分点。"]}}