{"F": {"ts_code": "000703.SZ", "name": "恒逸石化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "炼化及贸易", "sw3": "炼油化工", "ind": "炼化及贸易", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970328", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.93, "pe_ttm": 11.5489, "pb": 2.2983, "dv_ttm": 0.251, "total_mv": 6852061.0246, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.9, 5.7, 2.3, 3.8, 3.7, 4.5], "rev_series": [864.3, 1289.8, 1520.5, 1361.5, 1254.6, 1135.3], "np_series": [30.7, 34.1, -10.8, 4.4, 2.3, 2.6], "roe_series": [13.0, 13.7, -4.2, 1.7, 0.9, 1.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1248.8, "np_ttm": 59.3, "ocf_ttm": 43.2, "fcf_ttm": -15.6, "fcf_yield": -2.3, "ocf_yield": 6.3, "gm_median": 3.8, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.71, "gm_chg_2022": -4.6, "npm_median": 0.3, "roe_median": 1.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.6, "fix_assets": 558.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 2.25, "capex_dep": 1.9, "interest_debt": 688.7, "debt_ebitda": 4.9, "debt_ratio": 67.6, "debt_mv": 100.5, "payout": 71.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -9.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 20.3, "np_yoy": 2500.7, "np_vol": 88.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 57.0, "earn_yield": 8.7, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 7.6, "fwd_pe2": 8.1, "fwd_g1": 52.0, "fwd_g2": -7.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["涤纶产品", 38.0], ["炼油产品", 29.0], ["化工品", 9.0], ["化工产品", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 73.5, "ret_prev2_year": -5.2, "ret_ytd": 67.3, "ret_pivot": 233.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.2, "ret_60": 44.8, "ret_120": 40.6, "ret_250": 183.3, "mdd_250": -31.9, "vol_250": 58.7, "pos_52w": 86.2}, "S": {"duration": 25, "pricing": 31, "hard": 73, "bondness": 61}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 46%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 3.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 3.8%,稳定度 71%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.3%(经营现金流/市值 6.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.8%,稳定度 71%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 1.90 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.5 倍 粗算,约 57%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 183%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 45% / 41%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「炼化及贸易」30 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 49%。", "恒逸石化:PE 比行业中位低 12.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点。"]}}