{"F": {"ts_code": "000700.SZ", "name": "模塑科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "车身附件及饰件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970228", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.1, "pe_ttm": 20.1922, "pb": 2.458, "dv_ttm": 2.9441, "total_mv": 1018997.094, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.1, 17.3, 17.6, 17.4, 18.1, 18.8], "rev_series": [61.0, 73.9, 76.6, 87.2, 71.4, 71.1], "np_series": [-0.0, -2.0, 5.0, 4.5, 6.3, 4.8], "roe_series": [-0.1, -7.8, 18.9, 14.0, 18.0, 13.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 67.6, "np_ttm": 5.0, "ocf_ttm": 9.6, "fcf_ttm": 7.1, "fcf_yield": 6.9, "ocf_yield": 9.4, "gm_median": 17.6, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 0.5, "npm_median": 6.5, "roe_median": 14.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.1, "fix_assets": 22.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.46, "capex_dep": 0.72, "interest_debt": 9.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 42.6, "debt_mv": 9.0, "payout": 47.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -2.5, "np_cagr3": -0.9, "rev_yoy": -10.3, "np_yoy": 7.4, "np_vol": 2227.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.0, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 16.8, "fwd_pe2": 14.1, "fwd_g1": 20.0, "fwd_g2": 19.0, "peg": 0.88, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["塑化汽车装饰件", 41.0], ["医疗", 2.0], ["专用装备的定制", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 117.0, "ret_prev2_year": 2.0, "ret_ytd": -21.0, "ret_pivot": 124.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.8, "ret_60": -24.3, "ret_120": -10.6, "ret_250": 19.6, "mdd_250": -46.7, "vol_250": 67.7, "pos_52w": 62.4}, "S": {"duration": 40, "pricing": 51, "hard": 50, "bondness": 58}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 31%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%,稳定度 97%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.9%(经营现金流/市值 9.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.6%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 0.72 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.2 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -24% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "模塑科技:PE 比行业中位低 10.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.6个百分点。"]}}