{"F": {"ts_code": "000698.SZ", "name": "ST沈化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "炼化及贸易", "sw3": "炼油化工", "ind": "炼化及贸易", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970220", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.63, "pe_ttm": 664.3791, "pb": 2.0351, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 297483.7272, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.3, 11.6, 4.0, 3.2, 8.4, 6.9], "rev_series": [95.7, 101.3, 59.4, 52.8, 50.2, 56.1], "np_series": [3.1, 1.1, -17.2, -4.6, -1.7, -0.1], "roe_series": [7.4, 7.0, -60.1, -25.9, -11.5, -0.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 61.7, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -1.2, "ocf_yield": 7.3, "gm_median": 6.9, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.55, "gm_chg_2022": -8.3, "npm_median": -3.3, "roe_median": -11.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.8, "fix_assets": 22.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.04, "capex_dep": 1.15, "interest_debt": 14.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 71.9, "debt_mv": 49.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -1.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 21.7, "np_yoy": 24.7, "np_vol": 709.5, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["聚醚", 69.0], ["糊树脂", 21.0], ["烧碱", 7.0], ["其他产品", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.6, "ret_prev2_year": -20.1, "ret_ytd": -0.8, "ret_pivot": 37.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.1, "ret_60": 9.7, "ret_120": -11.7, "ret_250": -16.6, "mdd_250": -32.7, "vol_250": 27.1, "pos_52w": 83.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 26, "hard": 70, "bondness": 32}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 6.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 6.9%,稳定度 55%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.2%(经营现金流/市值 7.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.9%,稳定度 55%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 1.15 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 664.4 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 10% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「炼化及贸易」30 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 49%。", "ST沈化:PE 比行业中位高 640.2倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点。"]}}