{"F": {"ts_code": "000695.SZ", "name": "滨海能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970218", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.49, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 9.6639, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 335808.7929, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.5, -3.2, -6.8, 3.2, 6.1, 0.2], "rev_series": [5.4, 4.9, 4.2, 3.4, 4.9, 5.7], "np_series": [-0.2, -0.6, -1.0, -0.2, -0.3, -0.9], "roe_series": [-4.5, -17.1, -40.6, -9.4, -16.6, -76.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.6, "np_ttm": -0.8, "ocf_ttm": -5.6, "fcf_ttm": -15.2, "fcf_yield": -45.3, "ocf_yield": -16.6, "gm_median": 0.2, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": -21.84, "gm_chg_2022": -16.2, "npm_median": -18.6, "roe_median": -17.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 55.7, "fix_assets": 23.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 9.66, "capex_dep": 27.21, "interest_debt": 12.4, "debt_ebitda": 71.8, "debt_ratio": 78.2, "debt_mv": 37.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 11.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 78.5, "np_yoy": 27.8, "np_vol": 110.7, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["负极材料及代工", 50.0], ["自产负极材料及代工", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.8, "ret_prev2_year": -4.3, "ret_ytd": 14.0, "ret_pivot": 47.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.2, "ret_60": 14.3, "ret_120": 0.4, "ret_250": 19.6, "mdd_250": -39.3, "vol_250": 54.6, "pos_52w": 75.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 4, "hard": 89, "bondness": 24}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 56%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 0.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 71.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 56%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 0.2%,稳定度 -2184%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -45.3%(经营现金流/市值 -16.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 0.2%,稳定度 -2184%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 56%,资本开支/折旧 27.21 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 14% / 0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "滨海能源:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 17.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 27.9个百分点。"]}}