{"F": {"ts_code": "000692.SZ", "name": "惠天热电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "热力服务", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970227", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.27, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 58.3902, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 227519.691, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-6.6, -13.0, -51.8, -24.6, -10.7, -2.9], "rev_series": [18.9, 19.9, 20.0, 19.6, 21.0, 21.0], "np_series": [-9.7, -2.2, -19.4, 9.8, -3.3, -0.5], "roe_series": [-126.4, -126.6, null, null, -178.4, -33.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.3, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_ttm": -7.5, "fcf_yield": -32.9, "ocf_yield": 16.5, "gm_median": -13.0, "gm_std": 17.1, "gm_stab": 2.31, "gm_chg_2022": -45.2, "npm_median": -11.9, "roe_median": -126.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 62.6, "fix_assets": 37.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 58.39, "capex_dep": 3.22, "interest_debt": 46.3, "debt_ebitda": 9.9, "debt_ratio": 101.1, "debt_mv": 203.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 1.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 2.5, "np_yoy": 33.5, "np_vol": 342.3, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["供暖供气", 32.0], ["供暖、供气", 32.0], ["材料销售", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.4, "ret_prev2_year": 6.4, "ret_ytd": 24.1, "ret_pivot": 48.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.4, "ret_60": -5.3, "ret_120": 1.2, "ret_250": 17.3, "mdd_250": -34.5, "vol_250": 47.6, "pos_52w": 77.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 100, "bondness": 33}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 101%,有息负债 46 亿,经营现金流/市值 16.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 63%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 -13.0%,稳定度 231%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -32.9%(经营现金流/市值 16.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 -13.0%,稳定度 231%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -45.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 63%,资本开支/折旧 3.22 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 17%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -5% / 1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "惠天热电:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 35.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点。"]}}