{"F": {"ts_code": "000688.SZ", "name": "国城矿业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "钼", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970120", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.95, "pe_ttm": 27.5471, "pb": 9.7847, "dv_ttm": 0.4651, "total_mv": 3312264.2215, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.0, 31.1, 36.6, 36.4, 27.9, 40.2], "rev_series": [9.1, 17.1, 15.5, 12.0, 19.2, 48.1], "np_series": [1.5, 2.1, 1.9, 0.6, -1.1, 10.8], "roe_series": [6.5, 8.3, 6.8, 2.2, -3.8, 38.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 70.8, "np_ttm": 14.6, "ocf_ttm": 19.3, "fcf_ttm": 7.0, "fcf_yield": 2.1, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 36.4, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -2.4, "npm_median": 10.0, "roe_median": 6.8, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 41.5, "fix_assets": 64.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 9.78, "capex_dep": 2.35, "interest_debt": 69.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.1, "debt_ratio": 71.1, "debt_mv": 21.0, "payout": 22.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 45.9, "np_cagr3": 79.7, "rev_yoy": 55.7, "np_yoy": 16.1, "np_vol": 139.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.6, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 15.8, "fwd_pe2": 11.4, "fwd_g1": 74.0, "fwd_g2": 39.0, "peg": 0.41, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["钼精矿", 24.0], ["钛白粉", 14.0], ["锌精矿", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 135.3, "ret_prev2_year": 15.7, "ret_ytd": 1.0, "ret_pivot": 202.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.8, "ret_60": -38.3, "ret_120": -22.9, "ret_250": 89.9, "mdd_250": -49.8, "vol_250": 72.4, "pos_52w": 54.3}, "S": {"duration": 50, "pricing": 70, "hard": 66, "bondness": 17}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 64 亿,占总资产 42%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:钼 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 2.1%,股息率 0.5%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 82%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 42%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.1%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.4%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 2.35 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 27.5 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 90%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -38% / -23%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "国城矿业:PE 比行业中位低 9.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 18.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.8个百分点。"]}}