{"F": {"ts_code": "000683.SZ", "name": "博源化工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "纯碱", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970131", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.37, "pe_ttm": 22.9125, "pb": 1.9193, "dv_ttm": 4.7096, "total_mv": 2367621.7292, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.5, 41.4, 40.8, 41.1, 40.9, 30.5], "rev_series": [77.0, 121.5, 109.9, 120.4, 132.6, 120.7], "np_series": [0.7, 49.5, 26.6, 14.1, 18.1, 9.4], "roe_series": [0.7, 38.8, 19.1, 10.8, 12.9, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 121.9, "np_ttm": 10.3, "ocf_ttm": 20.9, "fcf_ttm": -16.4, "fcf_yield": -6.9, "ocf_yield": 8.8, "gm_median": 40.9, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 16.3, "npm_median": 21.7, "roe_median": 12.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 64.2, "fix_assets": 257.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.92, "capex_dep": 2.38, "interest_debt": 147.2, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 59.2, "debt_mv": 62.2, "payout": 76.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.2, "np_cagr3": -29.2, "rev_yoy": 1.9, "np_yoy": 12.3, "np_vol": 2879.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 13.1, "fwd_pe2": 10.5, "fwd_g1": 75.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 0.55, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["纯碱", 65.0], ["尿素", 20.0], ["小苏打", 12.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 43.1, "ret_prev2_year": 0.4, "ret_ytd": -10.8, "ret_pivot": 41.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.9, "ret_60": -0.3, "ret_120": -29.3, "ret_250": 7.4, "mdd_250": -44.7, "vol_250": 41.3, "pos_52w": 65.9}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 63, "hard": 100, "bondness": 83}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 257 亿,占总资产 64%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 40.9%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 16.3 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -6.9%,股息率 4.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 78%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 64%)和定价权(毛利率 40.9% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.9%(经营现金流/市值 8.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.9%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 16.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 64%,资本开支/折旧 2.38 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.9 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 7%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -0% / -29%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "博源化工:PE 比行业中位低 13.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 24.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.8个百分点。"]}}