{"F": {"ts_code": "000682.SZ", "name": "东方电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "电网自动化设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970121", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.17, "pe_ttm": 14.7916, "pb": 2.3956, "dv_ttm": 0.7789, "total_mv": 1497592.059, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.4, 33.1, 32.1, 33.7, 33.7, 32.2], "rev_series": [37.2, 44.9, 54.6, 64.8, 75.4, 83.8], "np_series": [2.8, 3.5, 4.4, 5.4, 6.8, 9.1], "roe_series": [8.3, 9.5, 11.0, 12.4, 14.1, 16.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 88.8, "np_ttm": 10.1, "ocf_ttm": 5.9, "fcf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_yield": 2.1, "ocf_yield": 3.9, "gm_median": 33.1, "gm_std": 0.7, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -2.2, "npm_median": 9.4, "roe_median": 12.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.5, "fix_assets": 10.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.4, "capex_dep": 3.57, "interest_debt": 2.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 52.9, "debt_mv": 1.5, "payout": 16.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 15.3, "np_cagr3": 27.7, "rev_yoy": 16.0, "np_yoy": 33.2, "np_vol": 3.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 66.0, "earn_yield": 6.8, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 14.5, "fwd_pe2": 12.4, "fwd_g1": 2.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 0.85, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智能配用电业务", 65.0], ["输变电自动化业务", 13.0], ["调度及云化业务", 9.0], ["工业互联网及智能制造", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.6, "ret_prev2_year": 35.6, "ret_ytd": -5.4, "ret_pivot": 8.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.4, "ret_60": -5.3, "ret_120": -20.9, "ret_250": -7.6, "mdd_250": -26.8, "vol_250": 38.7, "pos_52w": 73.2}, "S": {"duration": 31, "pricing": 57, "hard": 12, "bondness": 16}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 33%,PE TTM 14.8 倍 但前瞻 PE 14.5 倍,PEG 0.85。", "自由现金流 3.1 亿(正),次年预期增速 17%(5 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.1%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.1%(经营现金流/市值 3.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.1%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 3.57 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.8 倍 粗算,约 66%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -5% / -21%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "东方电子:PE 比行业中位低 28.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.4个百分点。"]}}