{"F": {"ts_code": "000681.SZ", "name": "视觉中国", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "数字媒体", "sw3": "图片媒体", "ind": "数字媒体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970121", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.2, "pe_ttm": 85.8491, "pb": 3.2882, "dv_ttm": 0.0871, "total_mv": 1204993.128, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [63.5, 55.8, 54.0, 51.2, 46.8, 41.7], "rev_series": [5.7, 6.6, 7.0, 7.8, 8.1, 7.8], "np_series": [1.4, 1.5, 1.0, 1.5, 1.2, 0.8], "roe_series": [4.5, 4.8, 3.0, 4.3, 3.4, 2.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.5, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 51.2, "gm_std": 5.1, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -9.6, "npm_median": 16.1, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.0, "fix_assets": 0.0, "goodwill_ratio": 30.4, "pb_calc": 3.29, "capex_dep": 49.55, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 17.0, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": 12.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.7, "np_cagr3": -5.8, "rev_yoy": -7.3, "np_yoy": 131.0, "np_vol": 30.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["视觉素材与增值服务", 33.0], ["视觉内容与服务", 33.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.5, "ret_prev2_year": 42.0, "ret_ytd": -27.7, "ret_pivot": 56.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.5, "ret_60": -20.2, "ret_120": -22.2, "ret_250": -22.6, "mdd_250": -55.9, "vol_250": 58.2, "pos_52w": 49.0}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 61, "hard": 0, "bondness": 26}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["商誉占比高", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 85.8 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 0%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 51.2%),硬资产占比 0%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 51.2%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 49.55 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 85.8 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 49%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -20% / -22%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「数字媒体」14 家中位:PE 85.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 44.0% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 55%。", "视觉中国:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.4个百分点。"]}}