{"F": {"ts_code": "000677.SZ", "name": "ST海龙", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "粘胶", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961226", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.8, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.9563, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 155516.022, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.9, 29.6, 23.5, 20.9, 21.3, 21.8], "rev_series": [6.8, 10.7, 9.9, 10.3, 10.6, 11.5], "np_series": [0.1, 0.8, 0.5, 0.5, 0.4, 0.0], "roe_series": [2.3, 23.8, 12.7, 10.6, 9.1, 0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.0, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -5.2, "ocf_yield": -0.1, "gm_median": 21.8, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 8.6, "npm_median": 10.1, "roe_median": 10.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.4, "fix_assets": 5.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.96, "capex_dep": 2.21, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 30.4, "debt_mv": 3.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 5.0, "np_cagr3": -58.8, "rev_yoy": 9.6, "np_yoy": -42.7, "np_vol": 450.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["帘帆布", 43.0], ["卫生护理用品", 3.0], ["个人护理用品", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.1, "ret_prev2_year": 22.4, "ret_ytd": -59.0, "ret_pivot": -28.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.9, "ret_60": -0.6, "ret_120": -64.1, "ret_250": -67.7, "mdd_250": -74.5, "vol_250": 56.0, "pos_52w": 31.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 52, "hard": 50, "bondness": 16}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 30%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%,稳定度 85%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.2%(经营现金流/市值 -0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.8%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 2.21 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -68%,最大回撤 -74%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 32%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -1% / -64%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "ST海龙:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.2个百分点。"]}}