{"F": {"ts_code": "000672.SZ", "name": "上峰材料", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "水泥", "sw3": "水泥制造", "ind": "水泥", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961218", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.89, "pe_ttm": 8.2254, "pb": 1.4498, "dv_ttm": 3.1705, "total_mv": 1443429.8995, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.6, 43.6, 33.6, 27.7, 26.2, 28.9], "rev_series": [64.3, 83.1, 71.3, 64.0, 54.5, 46.9], "np_series": [20.3, 21.8, 9.5, 7.4, 6.3, 6.4], "roe_series": [33.2, 28.9, 11.4, 8.6, 7.1, 7.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 42.6, "np_ttm": 17.5, "ocf_ttm": 8.4, "fcf_ttm": 5.7, "fcf_yield": 4.0, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 28.9, "gm_std": 6.3, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -15.0, "npm_median": 13.4, "roe_median": 8.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.8, "fix_assets": 45.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 1.45, "capex_dep": 0.53, "interest_debt": 35.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.9, "debt_ratio": 44.3, "debt_mv": 24.4, "payout": 71.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -13.0, "np_cagr3": -12.4, "rev_yoy": -19.1, "np_yoy": 452.5, "np_vol": 22.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 39.0, "earn_yield": 12.2, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 9.0, "fwd_pe2": 14.9, "fwd_g1": -9.0, "fwd_g2": -39.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["水泥", 53.0], ["熟料", 15.0], ["商品熟料", 15.0], ["砂石骨料", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 91.3, "ret_prev2_year": -0.2, "ret_ytd": 19.0, "ret_pivot": 197.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.2, "ret_60": -7.7, "ret_120": 10.6, "ret_250": 71.0, "mdd_250": -47.0, "vol_250": 54.6, "pos_52w": 62.9}, "S": {"duration": 19, "pricing": 46, "hard": 38, "bondness": 73}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 71%、股息率 3.2%、营收 3 年复合 -13.0%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.9 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.0%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.9%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 0.53 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 8.2 倍 粗算,约 39%(1 − 5/PE)。<40%,估值靠当期。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 71%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -8% / 11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「水泥」21 家中位:PE 19.9 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 17.5% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "上峰材料:PE 比行业中位低 11.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.0个百分点。"]}}