{"F": {"ts_code": "000669.SZ", "name": "ST金鸿", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "燃气Ⅱ", "sw3": "燃气Ⅲ", "ind": "燃气Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961210", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.31, "pe_ttm": 41.7311, "pb": 39.6526, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 293256.1928, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.4, 13.8, 10.8, 9.0, 14.8, 11.1], "rev_series": [23.0, 19.7, 12.6, 12.3, 13.1, 12.5], "np_series": [0.2, -6.6, -1.3, -2.2, -2.1, 0.3], "roe_series": [1.3, -69.9, -24.5, -61.4, -142.9, 56.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.6, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_yield": 7.6, "ocf_yield": 9.7, "gm_median": 11.1, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": -16.1, "roe_median": -61.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 69.2, "fix_assets": 16.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 39.65, "capex_dep": 1.97, "interest_debt": 11.7, "debt_ebitda": 14.6, "debt_ratio": 92.5, "debt_mv": 39.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -0.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 1.9, "np_yoy": 141.9, "np_vol": 1653.9, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["天然气", 94.0], ["工程安装", 2.0], ["管输费", 1.0], ["其他收入", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.8, "ret_prev2_year": -9.4, "ret_ytd": 46.1, "ret_pivot": 224.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 23.9, "ret_60": 6.7, "ret_120": -11.3, "ret_250": 31.8, "mdd_250": -39.4, "vol_250": 45.2, "pos_52w": 78.6}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 41, "hard": 100, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 42 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 92%,有息负债 12 亿,经营现金流/市值 9.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 69%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.1%,稳定度 81%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.6%(经营现金流/市值 9.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.1%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 69%,资本开支/折旧 1.97 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 41.7 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 32%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 24% / 7% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「燃气Ⅱ」30 家中位:PE 22.2 / 股息率 2.5% / 毛利率 15.7% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 50%。", "ST金鸿:PE 比行业中位高 19.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.6个百分点。"]}}