{"F": {"ts_code": "000668.SZ", "name": "荣丰控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961210", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.75, "pe_ttm": 118.1346, "pb": 4.3406, "dv_ttm": 0.7356, "total_mv": 319381.1325, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.0, 18.3, 25.7, 27.9, -14.8, 21.1], "rev_series": [1.1, 2.5, 6.4, 1.2, 1.3, 4.1], "np_series": [-0.2, 2.4, -0.4, -0.5, -3.7, 0.3], "roe_series": [-2.4, 22.2, -3.2, -4.3, -40.1, 3.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.1, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_yield": 6.0, "ocf_yield": 6.0, "gm_median": 21.1, "gm_std": 15.6, "gm_stab": 0.26, "gm_chg_2022": -3.3, "npm_median": -6.0, "roe_median": -3.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.1, "fix_assets": 0.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.34, "capex_dep": 0.0, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 37.5, "debt_mv": 4.0, "payout": 88.9, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -14.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 5.5, "np_yoy": 3.6, "np_vol": 573.6, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["跨境物流收入", 41.0], ["跨境物流业务收入", 41.0], ["物业管理、租赁", 5.0], ["出租物业收入", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 54.1, "ret_prev2_year": -50.0, "ret_ytd": 125.2, "ret_pivot": 246.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.0, "ret_60": 7.0, "ret_120": 63.5, "ret_250": 123.5, "mdd_250": -37.3, "vol_250": 56.7, "pos_52w": 90.4}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 25, "hard": 0, "bondness": 59}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 118 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 38%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 6.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 0%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.0%(经营现金流/市值 6.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.1%,稳定度 26%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 118.1 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 124%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 90%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 7% / 64%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "荣丰控股:PE 比行业中位高 92.1倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.9个百分点。"]}}