{"F": {"ts_code": "000665.SZ", "name": "湖北广电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "电视广播Ⅱ", "sw3": "电视广播Ⅲ", "ind": "电视广播Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961210", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.16, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.5478, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 473054.192, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.2, 11.0, 7.9, 3.7, -5.9, -8.4], "rev_series": [23.8, 21.7, 21.8, 19.7, 15.9, 15.2], "np_series": [-6.9, -4.5, -6.0, -6.5, -7.9, -10.9], "roe_series": [-10.7, -7.4, -10.1, -11.7, -16.4, -28.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.3, "np_ttm": -11.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 3.7, "gm_std": 7.6, "gm_stab": -1.06, "gm_chg_2022": -9.3, "npm_median": -32.9, "roe_median": -11.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 67.0, "fix_assets": 61.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.55, "capex_dep": 0.2, "interest_debt": 40.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 66.8, "debt_mv": 84.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -11.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -11.3, "np_yoy": -1.7, "np_vol": 26.3, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["有线电视服务", 33.0], ["有线电视及相关产品", 33.0], ["产品", 33.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.5, "ret_prev2_year": -4.2, "ret_ytd": -28.5, "ret_pivot": 13.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.3, "ret_60": 1.7, "ret_120": -18.4, "ret_250": -30.7, "mdd_250": -50.3, "vol_250": 42.8, "pos_52w": 57.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 6, "hard": 100, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 67%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 3.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.3 个百分点;资产负债率 67%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 67%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 3.7%,稳定度 -106%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.7%,稳定度 -106%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 67%,资本开支/折旧 0.20 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 2% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电视广播Ⅱ」15 家中位:PE 38.2 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 24.7% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 62%。", "湖北广电:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 21.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 40.5个百分点。"]}}