{"F": {"ts_code": "000663.SZ", "name": "永安林业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "林业Ⅱ", "sw3": "林业Ⅲ", "ind": "林业Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961206", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.12, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.2645, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 206050.5468, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.8, 30.6, 44.3, 44.7, 9.9, 11.4], "rev_series": [5.8, 5.1, 7.6, 6.9, 3.2, 3.2], "np_series": [0.4, 0.5, 2.7, 1.9, -0.9, -1.0], "roe_series": [6.2, 8.8, 34.4, 18.9, -8.0, -9.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.4, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -4.5, "ocf_yield": -2.8, "gm_median": 30.6, "gm_std": 15.2, "gm_stab": 0.5, "gm_chg_2022": 28.6, "npm_median": 10.8, "roe_median": 8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.7, "fix_assets": 3.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.26, "capex_dep": 5.15, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 36.6, "debt_mv": 2.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -24.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 14.7, "np_yoy": -9.8, "np_vol": 181.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["木材二次加工产品", 47.0], ["其他业务", 2.0], ["木材", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 36.7, "ret_prev2_year": -33.2, "ret_ytd": -17.1, "ret_pivot": 32.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.8, "ret_60": 9.3, "ret_120": -14.5, "ret_250": -16.0, "mdd_250": -54.4, "vol_250": 45.4, "pos_52w": 59.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 44, "hard": 38, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 37%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 30.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.5%(经营现金流/市值 -2.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.6%,稳定度 50%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 28.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 5.15 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 9% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「林业Ⅱ」4 家中位:PE 167.2 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 18.8% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 85%。", "永安林业:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.8个百分点。"]}}