{"F": {"ts_code": "000659.SZ", "name": "珠海中富", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "塑料包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961203", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.91, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 54.8376, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 374139.4275, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.3, 21.1, 14.5, 19.9, 15.6, 15.7], "rev_series": [12.6, 14.5, 13.0, 12.6, 10.1, 9.9], "np_series": [-1.8, 0.3, -1.9, -0.7, -1.2, -1.2], "roe_series": [-27.6, 4.5, -37.9, -19.3, -44.7, -69.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.1, "np_ttm": -1.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.0, "ocf_yield": 3.3, "gm_median": 15.7, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -5.8, "npm_median": -11.7, "roe_median": -37.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.1, "fix_assets": 9.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 54.84, "capex_dep": 1.36, "interest_debt": 10.1, "debt_ebitda": 8.4, "debt_ratio": 101.5, "debt_mv": 27.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -8.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -14.4, "np_yoy": 25.9, "np_vol": 344.8, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["饮料包装制品", 67.0], ["饮料加工", 32.0], ["胶罐业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.0, "ret_prev2_year": 17.0, "ret_ytd": -28.3, "ret_pivot": 21.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.9, "ret_60": -17.3, "ret_120": -25.0, "ret_250": 2.5, "mdd_250": -52.7, "vol_250": 51.7, "pos_52w": 59.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 77, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 48%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 8.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.7%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.0%(经营现金流/市值 3.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.7%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 1.36 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -17% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "珠海中富:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.3个百分点。"]}}