{"F": {"ts_code": "000657.SZ", "name": "中钨高新", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "钨", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961205", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 57.64, "pe_ttm": 46.7184, "pb": 11.6436, "dv_ttm": 0.399, "total_mv": 13133875.7616, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.4, 19.4, 17.5, 16.9, 22.1, 23.7], "rev_series": [99.2, 120.9, 130.8, 127.4, 147.4, 176.4], "np_series": [2.2, 5.3, 5.3, 4.8, 9.4, 12.8], "roe_series": [5.8, 11.5, 10.4, 8.7, 14.1, 14.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 261.7, "np_ttm": 28.5, "ocf_ttm": -4.8, "fcf_ttm": -14.8, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": -0.4, "gm_median": 19.4, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -0.9, "npm_median": 5.3, "roe_median": 11.5, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 19.9, "fix_assets": 61.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 11.64, "capex_dep": 1.37, "interest_debt": 68.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 60.5, "debt_mv": 5.2, "payout": 39.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 10.5, "np_cagr3": 33.8, "rev_yoy": 108.5, "np_yoy": 280.5, "np_vol": 53.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["其他硬质合金", 29.0], ["精矿及粉末产品", 28.0], ["切削刀具及工具", 14.0], ["难熔金属制品", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 211.6, "ret_prev2_year": 10.8, "ret_ytd": 109.8, "ret_pivot": 671.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.0, "ret_60": -25.8, "ret_120": 3.2, "ret_250": 204.3, "mdd_250": -55.6, "vol_250": 76.8, "pos_52w": 53.3}, "S": {"duration": 69, "pricing": 70, "hard": 32, "bondness": 30}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 46.7 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 19.4%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 19.4%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 -0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.4%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 1.37 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 46.7 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 204%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 77%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -26% / 3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "中钨高新:PE 比行业中位高 9.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点。"]}}