{"F": {"ts_code": "000656.SZ", "name": "金科股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.25, "pe_ttm": 0.359, "pb": 3.1704, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1323591.45, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.2, 17.2, 6.5, 12.8, 12.0, 14.2], "rev_series": [877.0, 1123.1, 548.6, 632.4, 275.5, 68.8], "np_series": [70.3, 36.0, -213.9, -87.3, -319.7, 293.2], "roe_series": [21.9, 9.5, -83.3, -109.4, null, null], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 48.3, "np_ttm": 368.7, "ocf_ttm": -13.1, "fcf_ttm": -13.2, "fcf_yield": -9.9, "ocf_yield": -9.9, "gm_median": 12.8, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": -16.7, "npm_median": -13.3, "roe_median": -83.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.0, "fix_assets": 0.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.17, "capex_dep": 0.21, "interest_debt": 7.4, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 66.7, "debt_mv": 5.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -49.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -87.1, "np_yoy": 100.2, "np_vol": 309.9, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 0.0, "earn_yield": 278.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["房地产销售及运营", 28.0], ["房地产", 28.0], ["资产运营管理", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 66.5, "ret_prev2_year": -4.4, "ret_ytd": -13.2, "ret_pivot": 106.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.8, "ret_60": -6.7, "ret_120": -9.4, "ret_250": 82.5, "mdd_250": -31.0, "vol_250": 100.5, "pos_52w": 80.6}, "S": {"duration": 1, "pricing": 36, "hard": 0, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 368.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 0 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 67%,有息负债 7 亿,经营现金流/市值 -9.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 0%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.9%(经营现金流/市值 -9.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.8%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 0.21 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 0.4 倍 粗算,约 0%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 82%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 100%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / -7% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "金科股份:PE 比行业中位低 25.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点。"]}}