{"F": {"ts_code": "000655.SZ", "name": "金岭矿业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "冶钢原料", "sw3": "铁矿石", "ind": "冶钢原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.21, "pe_ttm": 18.1565, "pb": 1.2128, "dv_ttm": 3.1345, "total_mv": 429240.2842, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.3, 30.4, 21.1, 22.2, 16.8, 22.0], "rev_series": [14.3, 18.2, 13.7, 14.5, 15.5, 16.6], "np_series": [2.3, 1.3, 2.0, 2.4, 2.0, 2.7], "roe_series": [8.6, 4.5, 6.8, 7.4, 6.2, 7.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.9, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 3.4, "fcf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_yield": 5.8, "ocf_yield": 7.9, "gm_median": 22.0, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -7.2, "npm_median": 15.1, "roe_median": 6.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.8, "fix_assets": 4.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.21, "capex_dep": 2.31, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 11.9, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 50.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.6, "np_cagr3": 9.7, "rev_yoy": 16.3, "np_yoy": -21.1, "np_vol": 35.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.5, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 17.2, "fwd_pe2": 15.8, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": 8.0, "peg": 2.15, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["铁精粉", 75.0], ["球团", 11.0], ["铜精粉", 7.0], ["其他业务", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 61.2, "ret_prev2_year": -12.5, "ret_ytd": -23.1, "ret_pivot": 50.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.0, "ret_60": 5.7, "ret_120": -30.2, "ret_250": -19.1, "mdd_250": -45.0, "vol_250": 39.2, "pos_52w": 64.1}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 43, "hard": 17, "bondness": 50}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 50%、股息率 3.1%、营收 3 年复合 6.6%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.8%(经营现金流/市值 7.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.0%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 2.31 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.2 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 6% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「冶钢原料」10 家中位:PE 30.6 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 34.8% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 54%。", "金岭矿业:PE 比行业中位低 12.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 22.1个百分点。"]}}