{"F": {"ts_code": "000636.SZ", "name": "风华高科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "被动元件", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961129", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 48.41, "pe_ttm": 136.5577, "pb": 4.3902, "dv_ttm": 0.2066, "total_mv": 5555001.5105, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.7, 31.9, 18.0, 14.4, 19.2, 17.7], "rev_series": [43.3, 50.6, 38.7, 42.2, 49.4, 57.6], "np_series": [3.6, 9.4, 3.3, 1.7, 3.4, 2.8], "roe_series": [6.2, 14.6, 3.5, 1.5, 2.8, 2.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 64.8, "np_ttm": 4.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.0, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 18.0, "gm_std": 6.1, "gm_stab": 0.66, "gm_chg_2022": -11.7, "npm_median": 6.7, "roe_median": 2.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.4, "fix_assets": 57.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.39, "capex_dep": 0.34, "interest_debt": 2.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 25.2, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.1, "np_cagr3": -4.7, "rev_yoy": 26.3, "np_yoy": 74.0, "np_vol": 88.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 73.9, "fwd_pe2": 51.0, "fwd_g1": 85.0, "fwd_g2": 45.0, "peg": 1.64, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电子元器件及电子材料", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.8, "ret_prev2_year": 5.5, "ret_ytd": 199.2, "ret_pivot": 286.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -16.9, "ret_60": -24.6, "ret_120": 124.1, "ret_250": 216.2, "mdd_250": -49.8, "vol_250": 71.8, "pos_52w": 60.4}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 36, "hard": 53, "bondness": 22}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 33%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.0%,稳定度 66%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.0%,稳定度 66%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 0.34 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 136.6 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 216%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -17% / -25% / 124%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "风华高科:PE 比行业中位高 71.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点。"]}}