{"F": {"ts_code": "000632.SZ", "name": "ST三木", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "综合", "sw2": "综合Ⅱ", "sw3": "综合Ⅲ", "ind": "综合Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961121", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.14, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": null, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 192725.1144, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [5.7, 3.9, 3.7, 2.6, 3.3, 4.0], "rev_series": [84.4, 86.0, 139.5, 139.1, 104.8, 59.0], "np_series": [0.5, 0.3, 0.1, -3.2, -5.3, -9.0], "roe_series": [3.4, 1.8, 1.0, -21.4, -41.4, -157.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 35.4, "np_ttm": -16.4, "ocf_ttm": -6.0, "fcf_ttm": -6.1, "fcf_yield": -31.4, "ocf_yield": -31.1, "gm_median": 3.7, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": -2.4, "roe_median": -21.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.0, "fix_assets": 4.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": 0.26, "interest_debt": 44.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 104.9, "debt_mv": 229.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -24.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -62.7, "np_yoy": -710.7, "np_vol": 876.0, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["跨境电商商品（混合）", 20.0], ["跨境电商商品(混合)", 20.0], ["船舶物料", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 54.0, "ret_prev2_year": -19.7, "ret_ytd": -26.7, "ret_pivot": 51.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 24.0, "ret_60": 11.0, "ret_120": -16.4, "ret_250": 0.5, "mdd_250": -69.5, "vol_250": 67.0, "pos_52w": 47.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 38, "hard": 10, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -16.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 105%,有息负债 44 亿,经营现金流/市值 -31.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 3.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -31.4%(经营现金流/市值 -31.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.7%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.26 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 0%,最大回撤 -70%,年化波动 67%,现价在 52 周高点的 47%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 24% / 11% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「综合Ⅱ」20 家中位:PE 46.7 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 15.5% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 35%。", "ST三木:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.4个百分点。"]}}