{"F": {"ts_code": "000631.SZ", "name": "顺发恒能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "电能综合服务", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961122", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.96, "pe_ttm": 342.2618, "pb": 1.2318, "dv_ttm": 0.5068, "total_mv": 680800.0296, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [50.8, 45.1, 53.1, 18.5, 32.7, 27.2], "rev_series": [5.8, 2.7, 3.1, 22.4, 3.1, 4.9], "np_series": [2.5, 1.0, 1.6, 3.3, 0.8, 0.6], "roe_series": [3.9, 1.5, 2.6, 5.5, 1.5, 1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.7, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -4.7, "fcf_yield": -6.9, "ocf_yield": -0.6, "gm_median": 32.7, "gm_std": 12.4, "gm_stab": 0.62, "gm_chg_2022": 2.2, "npm_median": 29.2, "roe_median": 1.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.4, "fix_assets": 11.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.23, "capex_dep": 4.03, "interest_debt": 5.8, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 21.0, "debt_mv": 8.6, "payout": 58.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 17.1, "np_cagr3": -28.6, "rev_yoy": -11.4, "np_yoy": -77.6, "np_vol": 74.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["天然气发电及供热", 21.0], ["物业管理服务", 9.0], ["物业服务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.6, "ret_prev2_year": -8.7, "ret_ytd": -8.5, "ret_pivot": 27.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.3, "ret_60": -11.4, "ret_120": -24.8, "ret_250": -5.0, "mdd_250": -35.4, "vol_250": 42.1, "pos_52w": 69.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 25, "bondness": 38}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 342.3 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 15%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 32.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.9%(经营现金流/市值 -0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.7%,稳定度 62%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 4.03 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 342.3 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -5%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -11% / -25%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "顺发恒能:PE 比行业中位高 314.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 45.3个百分点。"]}}