{"F": {"ts_code": "000630.SZ", "name": "铜陵有色", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铜", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961120", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.39, "pe_ttm": 21.5923, "pb": 2.2512, "dv_ttm": 1.5649, "total_mv": 8568652.2885, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [4.4, 5.8, 5.9, 7.3, 7.1, 7.9], "rev_series": [994.4, 1310.3, 1218.5, 1374.5, 1455.3, 1727.3], "np_series": [8.7, 31.0, 27.3, 27.0, 28.1, 24.2], "roe_series": [4.6, 15.3, 11.6, 9.4, 8.5, 6.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2183.6, "np_ttm": 39.7, "ocf_ttm": -5.5, "fcf_ttm": -56.4, "fcf_yield": -6.6, "ocf_yield": -0.6, "gm_median": 7.1, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": 1.5, "npm_median": 2.6, "roe_median": 9.4, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 28.4, "fix_assets": 310.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.25, "capex_dep": 1.62, "interest_debt": 352.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 56.3, "debt_mv": 41.2, "payout": 45.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.3, "np_cagr3": -4.0, "rev_yoy": 60.0, "np_yoy": 107.9, "np_vol": 109.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 14.4, "fwd_pe2": 9.1, "fwd_g1": 50.0, "fwd_g2": 58.0, "peg": 0.25, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["铜产品", 40.0], ["黄金等副产品", 8.0], ["化工及其他产品", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 96.7, "ret_prev2_year": 1.0, "ret_ytd": 7.2, "ret_pivot": 116.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.2, "ret_60": -0.9, "ret_120": -7.4, "ret_250": 48.3, "mdd_250": -39.4, "vol_250": 58.5, "pos_52w": 69.9}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 70, "hard": 45, "bondness": 40}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 21.6 倍、股息率 1.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 7.1%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 7.1%),硬资产占比 28%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.6%(经营现金流/市值 -0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.1%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 1.62 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.6 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 48%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -1% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "铜陵有色:PE 比行业中位高 1.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点。"]}}