{"F": {"ts_code": "000629.SZ", "name": "钒钛股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "冶钢原料", "sw3": "冶钢辅料", "ind": "冶钢原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961115", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.0, "pe_ttm": 85.1343, "pb": 2.2213, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2787284.34, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.6, 19.9, 16.3, 14.4, 7.6, 9.0], "rev_series": [105.8, 140.6, 150.9, 143.8, 132.1, 88.9], "np_series": [2.3, 13.3, 13.4, 10.6, 2.9, -0.9], "roe_series": [2.4, 15.6, 16.5, 10.1, 2.3, -0.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 96.3, "np_ttm": 3.3, "ocf_ttm": 7.1, "fcf_ttm": 5.5, "fcf_yield": 2.0, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 14.4, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.68, "gm_chg_2022": 4.7, "npm_median": 7.5, "roe_median": 10.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.6, "fix_assets": 63.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.22, "capex_dep": 0.44, "interest_debt": 3.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 13.4, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -16.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 17.4, "np_yoy": 211.1, "np_vol": 130.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 50.0, "fwd_pe2": 37.5, "fwd_g1": 70.0, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 1.52, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["钒制品", 26.0], ["钒产品", 26.0], ["钛白粉", 24.0], ["其他主营业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.6, "ret_prev2_year": -12.2, "ret_ytd": -3.2, "ret_pivot": 31.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.2, "ret_60": -2.6, "ret_120": -23.1, "ret_250": 5.3, "mdd_250": -30.9, "vol_250": 43.7, "pos_52w": 69.3}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 42, "hard": 68, "bondness": 21}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 43%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 43%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.4%,稳定度 68%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.4%,稳定度 68%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 0.44 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 85.1 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 5%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -3% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「冶钢原料」10 家中位:PE 30.6 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 34.8% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 54%。", "钒钛股份:PE 比行业中位高 54.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 20.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.7个百分点。"]}}