{"F": {"ts_code": "000626.SZ", "name": "远大控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "原材料供应链服务", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.47, "pe_ttm": 91.5018, "pb": 2.043, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 479775.6743, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [1.3, 1.2, 0.6, 0.5, 0.7, 0.7], "rev_series": [590.4, 815.6, 820.1, 863.0, 880.7, 750.5], "np_series": [-1.1, 2.2, 1.1, -3.8, -3.0, -1.3], "roe_series": [-4.2, 8.0, 3.9, -13.3, -12.1, -5.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 793.1, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": -7.8, "fcf_ttm": -8.1, "fcf_yield": -16.9, "ocf_yield": -16.2, "gm_median": 0.7, "gm_std": 0.2, "gm_stab": 0.67, "gm_chg_2022": -0.7, "npm_median": -0.2, "roe_median": -5.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.8, "fix_assets": 4.3, "goodwill_ratio": 2.9, "pb_calc": 2.04, "capex_dep": 0.52, "interest_debt": 16.4, "debt_ebitda": 7.0, "debt_ratio": 70.8, "debt_mv": 34.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -2.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 10.2, "np_yoy": 640.1, "np_vol": 234.8, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["金属类商品贸易", 45.0], ["液化类商品贸易", 43.0], ["塑胶类商品贸易", 7.0], ["橡塑类商品贸易", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.9, "ret_prev2_year": -21.2, "ret_ytd": 19.4, "ret_pivot": 120.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 24.0, "ret_60": 32.3, "ret_120": 12.1, "ret_250": 31.9, "mdd_250": -42.8, "vol_250": 49.6, "pos_52w": 88.2}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 31, "hard": 8, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 92 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 71%,有息负债 16 亿,经营现金流/市值 -16.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 0.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -16.9%(经营现金流/市值 -16.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 0.7%,稳定度 67%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 0.52 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 91.5 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 32%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 24% / 32% / 12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "远大控股:PE 比行业中位高 70.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.8个百分点。"]}}