{"F": {"ts_code": "000625.SZ", "name": "长安汽车", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "乘用车", "sw3": "综合乘用车", "ind": "乘用车", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970610", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.12, "pe_ttm": 27.1314, "pb": 0.9282, "dv_ttm": 2.3299, "total_mv": 7057988.7872, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.3, 16.6, 20.5, 18.4, 14.9, 15.5], "rev_series": [845.7, 1051.4, 1212.5, 1513.0, 1597.3, 1640.0], "np_series": [33.2, 35.5, 78.0, 113.3, 73.2, 40.8], "roe_series": [6.8, 6.5, 13.2, 16.8, 9.9, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1569.4, "np_ttm": 26.0, "ocf_ttm": -9.7, "fcf_ttm": -56.3, "fcf_yield": -8.0, "ocf_yield": -1.4, "gm_median": 16.6, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 6.2, "npm_median": 3.8, "roe_median": 9.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.5, "fix_assets": 235.3, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 0.93, "capex_dep": 1.7, "interest_debt": 19.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 57.5, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": 39.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.6, "np_cagr3": -19.5, "rev_yoy": -9.7, "np_yoy": -64.3, "np_vol": 59.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 14.1, "fwd_pe2": 10.6, "fwd_g1": 93.0, "fwd_g2": 32.0, "peg": 0.44, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["销售商品", 48.0], ["提供劳务及其他", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -9.0, "ret_prev2_year": -19.5, "ret_ytd": -39.4, "ret_pivot": -38.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.1, "ret_60": -2.8, "ret_120": -33.5, "ret_250": -44.9, "mdd_250": -48.8, "vol_250": 22.0, "pos_52w": 54.1}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 50, "hard": 20, "bondness": 38}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 27.1 倍、股息率 2.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 16.6%、固定资产占比 12%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -8.0%(经营现金流/市值 -1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.6%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 1.70 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 27.1 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -45%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -3% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「乘用车」8 家中位:PE 27.1 / 股息率 2.3% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "长安汽车:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点。"]}}