{"F": {"ts_code": "000620.SZ", "name": "盈新发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961029", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.97, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.6889, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1743929.055, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.7, 18.6, 20.7, 9.0, 25.4, 9.8], "rev_series": [70.8, 86.0, 52.5, 38.8, 30.4, 17.1], "np_series": [-12.9, -38.9, -34.2, 3.5, -5.3, -11.7], "roe_series": [-17.7, -84.0, -357.4, 15.2, -10.4, -27.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.8, "np_ttm": -9.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 18.6, "gm_std": 6.4, "gm_stab": 0.66, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": -44.4, "roe_median": -27.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.7, "fix_assets": 33.2, "goodwill_ratio": 3.6, "pb_calc": 4.69, "capex_dep": 0.2, "interest_debt": 20.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 56.6, "debt_mv": 11.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -31.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 35.2, "np_yoy": 153.4, "np_vol": 134.4, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 74.2, "fwd_pe2": 42.4, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 75.0, "peg": 0.99, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["半导体存储", 28.0], ["其他业务", 26.0], ["文旅综合行业", 24.0], ["商品房销售", 22.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.4, "ret_prev2_year": 15.9, "ret_ytd": 10.8, "ret_pivot": 112.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.8, "ret_60": -0.7, "ret_120": -1.3, "ret_250": 74.7, "mdd_250": -33.5, "vol_250": 74.3, "pos_52w": 77.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 37, "hard": 57, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 36%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点;资产负债率 57%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.6%,稳定度 66%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.6%,稳定度 66%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 0.20 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 75%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 74%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / -1% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "盈新发展:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 33.7个百分点。"]}}