{"F": {"ts_code": "000617.SZ", "name": "中油资本", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "多元金融", "sw3": "金融控股", "ind": "多元金融", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961022", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.34, "pe_ttm": 18.3293, "pb": 0.8669, "dv_ttm": 1.3896, "total_mv": 9279286.0594, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.7, 32.4, 26.1, 24.0, 22.0, 34.5], "rev_series": [8.2, 7.4, 7.5, 7.7, 8.0, 9.2], "np_series": [78.4, 55.5, 49.2, 49.3, 46.5, 43.0], "roe_series": [9.0, 6.1, 5.2, 5.0, 4.6, 4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.8, "np_ttm": 50.6, "ocf_ttm": 94.3, "fcf_ttm": 87.7, "fcf_yield": 9.5, "ocf_yield": 10.2, "gm_median": 26.1, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -9.7, "npm_median": 1438.6, "roe_median": 5.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.7, "fix_assets": 80.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.87, "capex_dep": 1.06, "interest_debt": 9033.9, "debt_ebitda": 92.5, "debt_ratio": 83.0, "debt_mv": 973.6, "payout": 30.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.2, "np_cagr3": -4.4, "rev_yoy": 14.7, "np_yoy": 29.3, "np_vol": 9.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.5, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 18.7, "fwd_pe2": 17.8, "fwd_g1": -2.0, "fwd_g2": 5.0, "peg": 3.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["利息收入", 42.0], ["保险服务收入", 3.0], ["手续费及佣金收入", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 42.4, "ret_prev2_year": 31.7, "ret_ytd": -22.7, "ret_pivot": 49.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.5, "ret_60": 3.8, "ret_120": -16.9, "ret_250": -42.0, "mdd_250": -49.6, "vol_250": 43.6, "pos_52w": 56.6}, "S": {"duration": 37, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 47}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["中油资本 是多元金融。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 5.0%,PB 0.87倍,股息率 1.4%,分红率 30%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 5.5%(1/PE)与股息率 1.4% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.3 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 4% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「多元金融」24 家中位:PE 20.1 / 股息率 1.4% / 毛利率 28.6% / 固定资产占比 1% / 分红率 31%。", "中油资本:PE 比行业中位低 1.8倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}