{"F": {"ts_code": "000610.SZ", "name": "*ST西旅", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "旅游及景区", "sw3": "旅游综合", "ind": "旅游及景区", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960926", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.92, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": null, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 187504.3368, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [5.2, 3.4, -11.6, 4.0, 2.3, 1.9], "rev_series": [3.0, 5.6, 4.0, 5.5, 5.8, 5.6], "np_series": [0.4, -0.7, -1.7, -1.5, -2.6, -2.9], "roe_series": [4.3, -8.5, -22.8, -26.8, -71.0, -319.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.4, "np_ttm": -2.9, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": -1.7, "gm_median": 2.3, "gm_std": 5.9, "gm_stab": -1.55, "gm_chg_2022": -16.8, "npm_median": -45.4, "roe_median": -26.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.1, "fix_assets": 5.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": -0.96, "interest_debt": 10.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 109.1, "debt_mv": 55.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 11.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -6.5, "np_yoy": -4.4, "np_vol": 108.6, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["旅行社收入", 35.0], ["旅行社业务", 35.0], ["酒店收入", 12.0], ["酒店业", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": -8.8, "ret_prev2_year": -1.1, "ret_ytd": -36.4, "ret_pivot": -30.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 38.0, "ret_60": 23.0, "ret_120": -14.9, "ret_250": -42.5, "mdd_250": -67.7, "vol_250": 45.1, "pos_52w": 50.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 5, "hard": 53, "bondness": 11}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 33%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 2.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.8 个百分点;资产负债率 109%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 2.3%,稳定度 -155%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 -1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 2.3%,稳定度 -155%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 -0.96 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -68%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 38% / 23% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「旅游及景区」25 家中位:PE 66.7 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 32.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 44%。", "*ST西旅:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 30.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点。"]}}