{"F": {"ts_code": "000605.SZ", "name": "渤海股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960913", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.98, "pe_ttm": 240.397, "pb": 0.9937, "dv_ttm": 0.2007, "total_mv": 210889.8428, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.1, 25.5, 23.0, 24.8, 26.9, 20.9], "rev_series": [18.9, 18.1, 17.5, 18.4, 17.6, 18.7], "np_series": [0.2, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.1], "roe_series": [1.0, 0.6, 0.7, 1.0, 0.8, 0.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 19.7, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -5.0, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 24.8, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -4.1, "npm_median": 2.0, "roe_median": 0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.3, "fix_assets": 26.1, "goodwill_ratio": 1.6, "pb_calc": 0.99, "capex_dep": 0.88, "interest_debt": 36.2, "debt_ebitda": 11.0, "debt_ratio": 65.8, "debt_mv": 171.5, "payout": 43.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.2, "np_cagr3": -18.2, "rev_yoy": 11.6, "np_yoy": 1.7, "np_vol": 34.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["供热", 40.0], ["原水", 22.0], ["环境治理", 20.0], ["自来水", 18.0]], "ret_prev_year": -15.3, "ret_prev2_year": 24.4, "ret_ytd": -10.7, "ret_pivot": 36.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.6, "ret_60": -0.3, "ret_120": -18.3, "ret_250": -18.6, "mdd_250": -33.1, "vol_250": 31.3, "pos_52w": 77.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 53, "bondness": 49}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 240.4 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 24.8%、固定资产占比 33%、有息负债/EBITDA 11.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 24.8%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.8%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 0.88 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 240.4 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -0% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "渤海股份:PE 比行业中位高 214.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.4个百分点。"]}}