{"F": {"ts_code": "000603.SZ", "name": "盛达资源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铅锌", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960823", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 36.16, "pe_ttm": 29.2688, "pb": 6.6426, "dv_ttm": 0.3319, "total_mv": 2494929.3504, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [45.9, 67.0, 54.3, 32.0, 48.5, 57.6], "rev_series": [16.4, 16.4, 18.8, 22.5, 20.1, 24.6], "np_series": [2.9, 4.2, 3.6, 1.5, 3.9, 5.3], "roe_series": [13.0, 17.4, 13.0, 4.8, 12.6, 16.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.1, "np_ttm": 8.5, "ocf_ttm": 13.1, "fcf_ttm": 8.1, "fcf_yield": 3.2, "ocf_yield": 5.3, "gm_median": 54.3, "gm_std": 11.6, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": 8.4, "npm_median": 25.4, "roe_median": 13.0, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 32.8, "fix_assets": 29.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.64, "capex_dep": 2.34, "interest_debt": 26.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 48.4, "debt_mv": 10.5, "payout": 17.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 9.4, "np_cagr3": 13.5, "rev_yoy": 27.1, "np_yoy": 456.5, "np_vol": 74.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.4, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 20.1, "fwd_pe2": 15.0, "fwd_g1": 46.0, "fwd_g2": 34.0, "peg": 0.59, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["铅精粉(含银)", 20.0], ["铅精粉", 20.0], ["银精粉(含金)", 18.0], ["银精粉", 18.0]], "ret_prev_year": 162.0, "ret_prev2_year": 9.4, "ret_ytd": 17.3, "ret_pivot": 241.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.0, "ret_60": 29.6, "ret_120": -18.2, "ret_250": 111.3, "mdd_250": -72.4, "vol_250": 75.0, "pos_52w": 53.4}, "S": {"duration": 52, "pricing": 70, "hard": 52, "bondness": 24}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["成长兑现", "商品定价", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 30 亿,占总资产 33%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:铅锌 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 3.2%,股息率 0.3%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 83%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 33%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.2%(经营现金流/市值 5.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 54.3%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 8.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 2.34 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.3 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 111%,最大回撤 -72%,年化波动 75%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 30% / -18%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "盛达资源:PE 比行业中位高 8.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 43.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.3个百分点。"]}}