{"F": {"ts_code": "000598.SZ", "name": "兴蓉环境", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960529", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.22, "pe_ttm": 10.5035, "pb": 1.0749, "dv_ttm": 3.2576, "total_mv": 2154454.2814, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.0, 39.8, 38.5, 40.3, 41.5, 44.1], "rev_series": [53.7, 67.3, 76.3, 80.9, 90.5, 90.7], "np_series": [13.0, 14.9, 16.2, 18.4, 20.0, 20.1], "roe_series": [11.0, 11.6, 11.5, 11.7, 11.5, 10.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 92.6, "np_ttm": 20.5, "ocf_ttm": 34.9, "fcf_ttm": 7.9, "fcf_yield": 3.7, "ocf_yield": 16.2, "gm_median": 40.3, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -1.5, "npm_median": 22.7, "roe_median": 11.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.9, "fix_assets": 221.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.07, "capex_dep": 2.51, "interest_debt": 156.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.3, "debt_ratio": 58.9, "debt_mv": 72.6, "payout": 27.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.9, "np_cagr3": 7.4, "rev_yoy": 4.7, "np_yoy": 4.7, "np_vol": 5.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 52.0, "earn_yield": 9.5, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 10.1, "fwd_pe2": 9.3, "fwd_g1": 4.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 1.12, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["污水处理服务", 20.0], ["自来水制售", 14.0], ["垃圾焚烧发电", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.3, "ret_prev2_year": 40.6, "ret_ytd": 4.1, "ret_pivot": 24.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.4, "ret_60": 8.2, "ret_120": 3.5, "ret_250": 7.4, "mdd_250": -13.4, "vol_250": 19.9, "pos_52w": 97.2}, "S": {"duration": 23, "pricing": 60, "hard": 67, "bondness": 53}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 10.5 倍、股息率 3.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 40.3%、固定资产占比 42%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 42%、毛利率 40.3% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(环境治理:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.7%(经营现金流/市值 16.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.3%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 2.51 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.5 倍 粗算,约 52%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 7%,最大回撤 -13%,年化波动 20%,现价在 52 周高点的 97%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 8% / 4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "兴蓉环境:PE 比行业中位低 15.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 28.0个百分点。"]}}