{"F": {"ts_code": "000596.SZ", "name": "古井贡酒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "白酒Ⅱ", "sw3": "白酒Ⅲ", "ind": "白酒Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960927", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 101.17, "pe_ttm": 26.0629, "pb": 2.1485, "dv_ttm": 4.3491, "total_mv": 5347846.2, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [75.2, 75.1, 77.2, 79.1, 79.9, 79.3], "rev_series": [102.9, 132.7, 167.1, 202.5, 235.8, 188.3], "np_series": [18.5, 23.0, 31.4, 45.9, 55.2, 35.5], "roe_series": [19.5, 17.3, 17.9, 22.9, 23.9, 14.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 150.8, "np_ttm": 20.5, "ocf_ttm": -6.6, "fcf_ttm": -17.9, "fcf_yield": -3.4, "ocf_yield": -1.2, "gm_median": 79.1, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 1.9, "npm_median": 19.5, "roe_median": 17.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.7, "fix_assets": 91.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 2.15, "capex_dep": 1.47, "interest_debt": 5.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 32.4, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": 57.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.1, "np_cagr3": 4.1, "rev_yoy": -27.0, "np_yoy": -40.9, "np_vol": 28.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.8, "consensus_n": 24, "fwd_pe": 17.4, "fwd_pe2": 15.6, "fwd_g1": 50.0, "fwd_g2": 11.0, "peg": 1.58, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["白酒业务", 33.0], ["白酒", 33.0], ["其他主营业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -21.3, "ret_prev2_year": -25.2, "ret_ytd": -21.1, "ret_pivot": -25.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.3, "ret_60": 20.8, "ret_120": -8.3, "ret_250": -40.4, "mdd_250": -57.3, "vol_250": 39.5, "pos_52w": 59.5}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 83, "hard": 38, "bondness": 62}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 58%、股息率 4.3%、营收 3 年复合 4.1%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 79.1%),硬资产占比 24%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.4%(经营现金流/市值 -1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 79.1%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 1.47 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.1 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -40%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 21% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「白酒Ⅱ」19 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 3.7% / 毛利率 74.5% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 60%。", "古井贡酒:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.4个百分点。"]}}