{"F": {"ts_code": "000592.SZ", "name": "平潭发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "林业Ⅱ", "sw3": "林业Ⅲ", "ind": "林业Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960327", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.49, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 8.4895, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1446903.8192, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.9, 9.0, 6.8, 6.7, 11.2, 6.9], "rev_series": [12.3, 16.1, 11.8, 12.3, 15.6, 13.2], "np_series": [-2.3, -3.9, -2.3, -3.1, -1.2, -1.1], "roe_series": [-7.3, -13.9, -9.2, -13.9, -5.9, -6.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.6, "np_ttm": -2.0, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 6.9, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.75, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": -15.6, "roe_median": -9.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.0, "fix_assets": 2.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 8.49, "capex_dep": 0.47, "interest_debt": 5.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 39.3, "debt_mv": 3.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 4.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -35.1, "np_yoy": -560.5, "np_vol": 48.5, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["纤维板", 25.0], ["主营业务-纤维板销售", 25.0], ["商品房销售", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 436.6, "ret_prev2_year": 13.4, "ret_ytd": -51.4, "ret_pivot": 406.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.5, "ret_60": 1.2, "ret_120": -32.1, "ret_250": 122.3, "mdd_250": -68.7, "vol_250": 80.6, "pos_52w": 44.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 34, "hard": 16, "bondness": 19}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 39%,有息负债 5 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 6.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.9%,稳定度 75%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 0.47 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 122%,最大回撤 -69%,年化波动 81%,现价在 52 周高点的 45%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 1% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「林业Ⅱ」4 家中位:PE 167.2 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 18.8% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 85%。", "平潭发展:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.9个百分点。"]}}