{"F": {"ts_code": "000589.SZ", "name": "贵州轮胎", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "轮胎轮毂", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960308", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.35, "pe_ttm": 9.2632, "pb": 0.734, "dv_ttm": 2.9771, "total_mv": 676159.6935, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.6, 15.7, 16.7, 22.2, 17.9, 18.3], "rev_series": [68.1, 73.4, 84.4, 96.0, 106.9, 109.5], "np_series": [11.4, 3.7, 4.3, 8.3, 6.2, 6.2], "roe_series": [26.5, 6.9, 6.9, 12.3, 7.8, 6.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 114.9, "np_ttm": 7.3, "ocf_ttm": 13.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 19.8, "gm_median": 17.9, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -6.9, "npm_median": 5.7, "roe_median": 6.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.4, "fix_assets": 84.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.73, "capex_dep": 2.57, "interest_debt": 46.6, "debt_ebitda": 2.8, "debt_ratio": 51.4, "debt_mv": 68.9, "payout": 29.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 9.1, "np_cagr3": 13.1, "rev_yoy": 10.5, "np_yoy": 44.2, "np_vol": 53.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 46.0, "earn_yield": 10.8, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 8.9, "fwd_pe2": 7.3, "fwd_g1": 4.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 0.39, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["轮胎", 49.0], ["混炼胶及其他", 0.0], ["其他业务收入", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.7, "ret_prev2_year": -15.7, "ret_ytd": -14.5, "ret_pivot": 6.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.9, "ret_60": -0.5, "ret_120": -11.2, "ret_250": -4.0, "mdd_250": -21.0, "vol_250": 24.2, "pos_52w": 84.6}, "S": {"duration": 21, "pricing": 44, "hard": 71, "bondness": 47}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.9%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 19.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.9%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 2.57 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 9.3 倍 粗算,约 46%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -21%,年化波动 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -0% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "贵州轮胎:PE 比行业中位低 20.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.9个百分点。"]}}