{"F": {"ts_code": "000582.SZ", "name": "北部湾港", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "港口", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19951102", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.18, "pe_ttm": 28.7863, "pb": 1.4917, "dv_ttm": 1.2829, "total_mv": 3065808.921, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.4, 35.9, 34.4, 33.8, 32.1, 30.3], "rev_series": [53.6, 59.0, 63.8, 69.5, 70.0, 76.1], "np_series": [10.8, 10.3, 10.4, 11.3, 12.2, 10.4], "roe_series": [10.9, 9.5, 8.6, 8.5, 7.8, 5.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 76.4, "np_ttm": 10.7, "ocf_ttm": 29.1, "fcf_ttm": -7.4, "fcf_yield": -2.4, "ocf_yield": 9.5, "gm_median": 33.8, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": 18.0, "roe_median": 8.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 75.7, "fix_assets": 305.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.49, "capex_dep": 2.58, "interest_debt": 113.0, "debt_ebitda": 3.2, "debt_ratio": 43.5, "debt_mv": 36.9, "payout": 34.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.1, "np_cagr3": -0.0, "rev_yoy": 0.8, "np_yoy": 5.1, "np_vol": 9.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 26.2, "fwd_pe2": 21.2, "fwd_g1": 10.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 1.14, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["装卸堆存收入", 93.0], ["拖轮业务收入", 4.0], ["理货业务收入", 1.0], ["理货业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 21.2, "ret_prev2_year": 10.3, "ret_ytd": 31.0, "ret_pivot": 81.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.7, "ret_60": 8.7, "ret_120": 9.6, "ret_250": 44.5, "mdd_250": -30.1, "vol_250": 40.0, "pos_52w": 81.7}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 54, "hard": 100, "bondness": 43}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 28.8 倍、股息率 1.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 33.8%、固定资产占比 76%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 76%、毛利率 33.8% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(航运港口:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.4%(经营现金流/市值 9.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.8%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 76%,资本开支/折旧 2.58 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.8 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 44%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 9% / 10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "北部湾港:PE 比行业中位高 11.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 28.6个百分点。"]}}