{"F": {"ts_code": "000576.SZ", "name": "甘化科工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "地面兵装Ⅱ", "sw3": "地面兵装Ⅲ", "ind": "地面兵装Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940907", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.41, "pe_ttm": 47.3169, "pb": 2.1767, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 367027.7903, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.7, 40.4, 60.3, 51.8, 52.7, 45.2], "rev_series": [5.1, 5.4, 4.5, 3.2, 4.0, 5.1], "np_series": [6.8, 0.3, 1.2, -2.3, 0.2, 0.8], "roe_series": [47.9, 1.9, 7.1, -13.9, 1.3, 4.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.8, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": -0.1, "gm_median": 51.8, "gm_std": 6.8, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": 21.7, "npm_median": 7.3, "roe_median": 1.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.1, "fix_assets": 1.0, "goodwill_ratio": 30.2, "pb_calc": 2.18, "capex_dep": 0.5, "interest_debt": 1.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 28.7, "debt_mv": 5.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 4.3, "np_cagr3": -14.1, "rev_yoy": 117.4, "np_yoy": 5.4, "np_vol": 220.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["高性能特种合金材料制品", 31.0], ["电源及相关产品", 13.0], ["光电成像系统", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 45.0, "ret_prev2_year": -21.9, "ret_ytd": -20.1, "ret_pivot": 53.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 17.1, "ret_60": 19.1, "ret_120": -16.7, "ret_250": -31.3, "mdd_250": -48.6, "vol_250": 40.3, "pos_52w": 70.0}, "S": {"duration": 69, "pricing": 68, "hard": 7, "bondness": 20}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 47.3 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 51.8%、固定资产占比 4%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 51.8%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 51.8%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 21.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 0.50 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 47.3 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 17% / 19% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「地面兵装Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 107.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 28.6% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 42%。", "甘化科工:PE 比行业中位低 60.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 23.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 20.5个百分点。"]}}