{"F": {"ts_code": "000568.SZ", "name": "泸州老窖", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "白酒Ⅱ", "sw3": "白酒Ⅲ", "ind": "白酒Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940509", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 79.92, "pe_ttm": 15.6698, "pb": 2.5722, "dv_ttm": 7.2262, "total_mv": 11763435.9888, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [83.0, 85.7, 86.6, 88.3, 87.5, 86.6], "rev_series": [166.5, 206.4, 251.2, 302.3, 312.0, 257.3], "np_series": [60.1, 79.6, 103.7, 132.5, 134.7, 108.3], "roe_series": [28.3, 31.1, 33.3, 35.0, 30.4, 22.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 197.5, "np_ttm": 75.1, "ocf_ttm": 31.4, "fcf_ttm": 12.3, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 86.6, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": 3.5, "npm_median": 42.2, "roe_median": 31.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.6, "fix_assets": 106.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.57, "capex_dep": 2.85, "interest_debt": 63.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 28.7, "debt_mv": 5.4, "payout": 64.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.8, "np_cagr3": 1.5, "rev_yoy": -36.4, "np_yoy": -43.4, "np_vol": 20.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 68.0, "earn_yield": 6.4, "consensus_n": 33, "fwd_pe": 14.5, "fwd_pe2": 13.5, "fwd_g1": 8.0, "fwd_g2": 7.0, "peg": 2.07, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["中高档酒类", 30.0], ["中高档酒", 30.0], ["其他酒类", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.7, "ret_prev2_year": -30.1, "ret_ytd": -27.6, "ret_pivot": -11.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.1, "ret_60": -1.4, "ret_120": -22.7, "ret_250": -40.0, "mdd_250": -48.7, "vol_250": 32.0, "pos_52w": 58.1}, "S": {"duration": 32, "pricing": 88, "hard": 27, "bondness": 74}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 65%、股息率 7.2%、营收 3 年复合 0.8%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 86.6%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 86.6%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 2.85 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.7 倍 粗算,约 68%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -40%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -1% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「白酒Ⅱ」19 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 3.7% / 毛利率 74.5% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 60%。", "泸州老窖:PE 比行业中位低 10.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.5个百分点。"]}}