{"F": {"ts_code": "000564.SZ", "name": "供销大集", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "一般零售", "sw3": "百货", "ind": "一般零售", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940110", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.6, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.0141, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2889290.128, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.8, 43.5, 42.9, 30.4, 26.4, 32.6], "rev_series": [22.1, 16.6, 14.0, 14.0, 14.2, 18.9], "np_series": [-45.4, -6.9, -9.3, -25.2, -13.2, -16.7], "roe_series": [-16.4, -3.7, -7.9, -22.4, -9.9, -11.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 18.6, "np_ttm": -16.5, "ocf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_ttm": -5.6, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": -0.7, "gm_median": 32.6, "gm_std": 6.9, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": 5.1, "npm_median": -87.8, "roe_median": -9.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.3, "fix_assets": 26.4, "goodwill_ratio": 2.0, "pb_calc": 2.01, "capex_dep": 2.72, "interest_debt": 74.3, "debt_ebitda": 360.8, "debt_ratio": 50.1, "debt_mv": 25.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 10.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -3.6, "np_yoy": 398.5, "np_vol": 88.9, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["商业运营-物业运营", 27.0], ["商业运营-商超百货", 20.0], ["商贸物流", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -27.5, "ret_prev2_year": 136.3, "ret_ytd": -36.0, "ret_pivot": -10.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.5, "ret_60": 11.1, "ret_120": -26.6, "ret_250": -33.9, "mdd_250": -56.1, "vol_250": 42.8, "pos_52w": 54.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 55, "hard": 13, "bondness": 25}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -16.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 50%,有息负债 74 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 32.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 -0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.6%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 2.72 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 11% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「一般零售」60 家中位:PE 60.7 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 34.2% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 51%。", "供销大集:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.1个百分点。"]}}