{"F": {"ts_code": "000557.SZ", "name": "西部创业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "铁路运输", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940617", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.73, "pe_ttm": 75.2347, "pb": 0.8519, "dv_ttm": 0.5362, "total_mv": 543973.7631, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.7, 29.8, 22.9, 20.6, 27.0, 16.9], "rev_series": [9.0, 12.4, 17.9, 16.7, 13.5, 13.3], "np_series": [1.7, 2.3, 2.4, 2.4, 2.6, 2.9], "roe_series": [3.4, 4.3, 4.3, 4.2, 4.4, 4.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.9, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 4.1, "fcf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_yield": -3.7, "ocf_yield": 7.6, "gm_median": 22.9, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -10.8, "npm_median": 18.2, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 60.4, "fix_assets": 42.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.85, "capex_dep": 2.86, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 9.7, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 18.9, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -9.4, "np_cagr3": 7.1, "rev_yoy": 10.2, "np_yoy": -74.8, "np_vol": 10.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["货运", 50.0], ["葡萄酒及其他", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.1, "ret_prev2_year": 7.6, "ret_ytd": -24.8, "ret_pivot": -5.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.9, "ret_60": -4.6, "ret_120": -27.4, "ret_250": -34.7, "mdd_250": -40.9, "vol_250": 23.7, "pos_52w": 64.1}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 43, "hard": 97, "bondness": 30}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 75.2 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%、固定资产占比 60%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 60%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%,稳定度 80%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.7%(经营现金流/市值 7.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.9%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 60%,资本开支/折旧 2.86 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 75.2 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -35%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -5% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "西部创业:PE 比行业中位高 59.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 39.4个百分点。"]}}