{"F": {"ts_code": "000555.SZ", "name": "神州信息", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940408", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.1, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.9794, "dv_ttm": 0.0896, "total_mv": 1083109.695, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.1, 17.1, 15.3, 15.3, 14.9, 12.4], "rev_series": [106.9, 113.6, 120.0, 120.6, 100.0, 131.6], "np_series": [4.8, 3.8, 2.1, 2.1, -5.2, 0.6], "roe_series": [8.8, 6.5, 3.5, 3.4, -8.8, 1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 128.7, "np_ttm": -1.3, "ocf_ttm": 12.4, "fcf_ttm": 11.8, "fcf_yield": 10.9, "ocf_yield": 11.5, "gm_median": 15.3, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -1.8, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.1, "fix_assets": 3.8, "goodwill_ratio": 7.7, "pb_calc": 1.98, "capex_dep": 2.74, "interest_debt": 12.5, "debt_ebitda": 5.2, "debt_ratio": 54.7, "debt_mv": 11.5, "payout": 16.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 3.1, "np_cagr3": -35.1, "rev_yoy": -6.7, "np_yoy": -193.6, "np_vol": 155.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 75.7, "fwd_pe2": 42.7, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 77.0, "peg": 0.98, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["软件开发及技术服务", 33.0], ["系统集成设备", 11.0], ["系统集成", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 47.8, "ret_prev2_year": -0.5, "ret_ytd": -32.9, "ret_pivot": 28.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.8, "ret_60": 2.9, "ret_120": -37.4, "ret_250": -30.0, "mdd_250": -57.3, "vol_250": 52.2, "pos_52w": 50.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 5, "bondness": 38}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 55%,有息负债 12 亿,经营现金流/市值 11.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 3%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.9%(经营现金流/市值 11.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.3%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 2.74 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 3% / -37%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "神州信息:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.5个百分点。"]}}