{"F": {"ts_code": "000554.SZ", "name": "泰山石油", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "炼化及贸易", "sw3": "油品石化贸易", "ind": "炼化及贸易", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931215", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.51, "pe_ttm": 18.2352, "pb": 2.5655, "dv_ttm": 2.2739, "total_mv": 310816.6299, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.3, 10.6, 9.7, 10.5, 15.6, 16.8], "rev_series": [24.2, 28.0, 30.7, 36.4, 33.1, 31.7], "np_series": [0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.3, 1.0, 1.5], "roe_series": [0.8, 0.9, 1.0, 3.7, 10.0, 14.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.9, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 10.6, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": -1.6, "npm_median": 1.0, "roe_median": 3.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.1, "fix_assets": 4.3, "goodwill_ratio": 1.4, "pb_calc": 2.57, "capex_dep": 1.0, "interest_debt": 1.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 20.5, "debt_mv": 4.6, "payout": 45.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 1.0, "np_cagr3": 154.6, "rev_yoy": -11.2, "np_yoy": 17.3, "np_vol": 82.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["汽油", 33.0], ["柴油", 9.0], ["天然气(行业)", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 12.0, "ret_prev2_year": 3.9, "ret_ytd": 1.8, "ret_pivot": 37.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.8, "ret_60": 1.6, "ret_120": -29.3, "ret_250": -6.8, "mdd_250": -52.1, "vol_250": 44.4, "pos_52w": 56.4}, "S": {"duration": 37, "pricing": 37, "hard": 45, "bondness": 50}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 18.2 倍、股息率 2.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 10.6%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.6%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 1.00 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.2 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 2% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「炼化及贸易」30 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 49%。", "泰山石油:PE 比行业中位低 6.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.0个百分点。"]}}