{"F": {"ts_code": "000552.SZ", "name": "甘肃能化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "煤炭", "sw2": "煤炭开采", "sw3": "动力煤", "ind": "煤炭开采", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940106", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.56, "pe_ttm": 88.485, "pb": 0.8261, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1370065.0752, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.3, 30.5, 46.9, 35.9, 32.9, 15.8], "rev_series": [36.9, 48.4, 122.6, 112.6, 96.0, 78.4], "np_series": [4.5, 7.2, 31.7, 17.4, 12.1, -2.1], "roe_series": [5.6, 8.6, 29.6, 12.0, 7.4, -1.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 88.2, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": 15.8, "fcf_ttm": -36.9, "fcf_yield": -26.9, "ocf_yield": 11.5, "gm_median": 32.9, "gm_std": 10.0, "gm_stab": 0.7, "gm_chg_2022": 16.7, "npm_median": 15.0, "roe_median": 8.6, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 58.7, "fix_assets": 216.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.81, "capex_dep": 3.33, "interest_debt": 131.7, "debt_ebitda": 6.6, "debt_ratio": 53.2, "debt_mv": 96.1, "payout": 28.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -13.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 24.7, "np_yoy": 190.7, "np_vol": 73.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["煤炭", 24.0], ["电力", 10.0], ["发电", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -13.9, "ret_prev2_year": -6.9, "ret_ytd": 10.8, "ret_pivot": 12.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.8, "ret_60": 0.4, "ret_120": -9.9, "ret_250": -0.4, "mdd_250": -23.5, "vol_250": 31.1, "pos_52w": 87.4}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 70, "hard": 94, "bondness": 45}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 217 亿,占总资产 59%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:动力煤 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -26.9%,股息率 —,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 94%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 59%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -26.9%(经营现金流/市值 11.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.9%,稳定度 70%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 16.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 59%,资本开支/折旧 3.33 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 88.5 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -0%,最大回撤 -24%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 0% / -10%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「煤炭开采」26 家中位:PE 25.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 34.5% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 51%。", "甘肃能化:PE 比行业中位高 62.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.2个百分点。"]}}