{"F": {"ts_code": "000550.SZ", "name": "江铃汽车", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "商用车", "sw3": "商用载货车", "ind": "商用车", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931201", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.19, "pe_ttm": 12.4325, "pb": 1.2403, "dv_ttm": 3.1796, "total_mv": 1483864.866, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.9, 14.5, 14.2, 15.4, 14.1, 13.6], "rev_series": [331.0, 352.2, 301.0, 331.7, 383.7, 391.7], "np_series": [5.5, 5.7, 9.2, 14.8, 15.4, 11.9], "roe_series": [5.1, 5.9, 10.3, 15.1, 14.2, 10.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 404.4, "np_ttm": 11.9, "ocf_ttm": 30.7, "fcf_ttm": 19.4, "fcf_yield": 13.1, "ocf_yield": 20.7, "gm_median": 14.2, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 2.9, "roe_median": 10.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.9, "fix_assets": 60.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.24, "capex_dep": 0.97, "interest_debt": 4.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 63.4, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": 40.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 9.2, "np_cagr3": 9.1, "rev_yoy": 7.0, "np_yoy": 0.8, "np_vol": 33.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 60.0, "earn_yield": 8.0, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 8.8, "fwd_pe2": 7.4, "fwd_g1": 42.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 0.49, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["整车", 88.0], ["材料及零部件", 5.0], ["保养及技术服务等", 3.0], ["保养及技术服务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -18.6, "ret_prev2_year": 29.9, "ret_ytd": -4.7, "ret_pivot": -13.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.3, "ret_60": 7.3, "ret_120": -0.9, "ret_250": -14.7, "mdd_250": -26.6, "vol_250": 27.1, "pos_52w": 80.8}, "S": {"duration": 27, "pricing": 46, "hard": 30, "bondness": 44}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 40%、股息率 3.2%、营收 3 年复合 9.2%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 13.1%(经营现金流/市值 20.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.2%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.97 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.4 倍 粗算,约 60%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 7% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「商用车」13 家中位:PE 13.6 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 38%。", "江铃汽车:PE 比行业中位低 1.2倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点。"]}}