{"F": {"ts_code": "000548.SZ", "name": "湖南投资", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "高速公路", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931220", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.63, "pe_ttm": 80.4144, "pb": 1.1213, "dv_ttm": 0.6479, "total_mv": 231136.9154, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.7, 38.9, 40.2, 31.0, 41.3, 43.2], "rev_series": [4.4, 4.3, 4.2, 12.5, 6.3, 5.2], "np_series": [0.9, 0.5, 0.3, 1.5, 0.8, 0.4], "roe_series": [5.0, 2.9, 1.9, 7.7, 4.0, 2.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.2, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -2.9, "ocf_yield": -0.4, "gm_median": 40.2, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 4.5, "npm_median": 11.9, "roe_median": 2.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.4, "fix_assets": 3.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.12, "capex_dep": 1.53, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 15.4, "debt_mv": 6.6, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.7, "np_cagr3": 6.4, "rev_yoy": -36.2, "np_yoy": -37.0, "np_vol": 144.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["高速公路建设运营", 32.0], ["酒店投资经营", 6.0], ["资产管理和物业服务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.7, "ret_prev2_year": -4.0, "ret_ytd": -14.4, "ret_pivot": 16.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.7, "ret_60": 3.3, "ret_120": -19.6, "ret_250": -16.9, "mdd_250": -33.0, "vol_250": 28.5, "pos_52w": 77.2}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 62, "hard": 23, "bondness": 30}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 80.4 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 40.2%、固定资产占比 14%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 40.2%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.9%(经营现金流/市值 -0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.2%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.5 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 1.53 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 80.4 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 3% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "湖南投资:PE 比行业中位高 65.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.6个百分点。"]}}