{"F": {"ts_code": "000547.SZ", "name": "航天发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931130", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.61, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.3826, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2335362.1863, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.0, 34.4, 27.4, -17.5, -11.8, -2.1], "rev_series": [44.4, 41.4, 35.6, 18.6, 18.7, 25.0], "np_series": [8.1, 6.4, 0.3, -19.2, -16.7, -13.1], "roe_series": [9.6, 7.3, 0.4, -24.5, -27.8, -28.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.0, "np_ttm": -11.5, "ocf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": -2.1, "gm_std": 21.0, "gm_stab": 10.99, "gm_chg_2022": -11.6, "npm_median": -56.6, "roe_median": -24.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.4, "fix_assets": 7.7, "goodwill_ratio": 17.4, "pb_calc": 6.38, "capex_dep": 0.66, "interest_debt": 8.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 47.1, "debt_mv": 3.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -11.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 57.2, "np_yoy": 40.9, "np_vol": 2381.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["海洋装备、电力装备等产品", 44.0], ["通信产业", 20.0], ["通信与指控类产品", 20.0], ["蓝军装备及相关产品", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 351.6, "ret_prev2_year": -12.7, "ret_ytd": -55.7, "ret_pivot": 133.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.6, "ret_60": -22.2, "ret_120": -52.9, "ret_250": 62.2, "mdd_250": -67.1, "vol_250": 72.1, "pos_52w": 36.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 15, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -11.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 47%,有息负债 9 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 -2.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 -2.1%,稳定度 1099%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 0.66 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 62%,最大回撤 -67%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 36%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -22% / -53%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "航天发展:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 41.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.7个百分点。"]}}