{"F": {"ts_code": "000539.SZ", "name": "粤电力A", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "火力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931126", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.13, "pe_ttm": 1241.9531, "pb": 1.1837, "dv_ttm": 0.3899, "total_mv": 2693395.692, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.7, -6.0, -0.4, 14.6, 13.4, 11.3], "rev_series": [283.3, 441.7, 526.6, 597.1, 571.6, 515.4], "np_series": [17.5, -31.5, -30.0, 9.7, 9.6, 6.0], "roe_series": [6.5, -12.5, -13.8, 4.6, 4.3, 2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 547.3, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 118.4, "fcf_ttm": 23.9, "fcf_yield": 8.9, "ocf_yield": 43.9, "gm_median": 11.3, "gm_std": 8.2, "gm_stab": 0.27, "gm_chg_2022": -21.0, "npm_median": 2.0, "roe_median": 2.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 61.4, "fix_assets": 1160.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.18, "capex_dep": 1.51, "interest_debt": 1139.3, "debt_ebitda": 12.2, "debt_ratio": 77.5, "debt_mv": 423.0, "payout": 10.7, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -0.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 13.8, "np_yoy": -1780.7, "np_vol": 124.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 35.0, "fwd_g1": -423.0, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 25.0], ["电力", 25.0], ["电力：燃煤发电", 16.0], ["燃煤发电", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.0, "ret_prev2_year": -7.0, "ret_ytd": 16.6, "ret_pivot": 19.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.6, "ret_60": -31.9, "ret_120": -3.0, "ret_250": 8.2, "mdd_250": -47.4, "vol_250": 56.9, "pos_52w": 52.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 19, "hard": 98, "bondness": 41}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 1242 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 78%,有息负债 1139 亿,经营现金流/市值 43.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 61%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.3%,稳定度 27%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.9%(经营现金流/市值 43.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.3%,稳定度 27%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -21.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 61%,资本开支/折旧 1.51 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 1242.0 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 8%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -15% / -32% / -3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "粤电力A:PE 比行业中位高 1214.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点。"]}}