{"F": {"ts_code": "000538.SZ", "name": "云南白药", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "中药Ⅱ", "sw3": "中药Ⅲ", "ind": "中药Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931215", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 51.02, "pe_ttm": 17.4335, "pb": 2.2218, "dv_ttm": 5.1, "total_mv": 9103307.7852, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.8, 27.1, 26.3, 26.5, 27.9, 29.5], "rev_series": [327.4, 363.7, 364.9, 391.1, 400.3, 411.9], "np_series": [55.2, 28.0, 30.0, 40.9, 47.5, 51.5], "roe_series": [14.5, 7.4, 7.8, 10.4, 12.1, 13.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 418.1, "np_ttm": 52.2, "ocf_ttm": 47.4, "fcf_ttm": 42.5, "fcf_yield": 4.7, "ocf_yield": 5.2, "gm_median": 27.1, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -1.4, "npm_median": 10.5, "roe_median": 10.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.5, "fix_assets": 41.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 2.22, "capex_dep": 2.15, "interest_debt": 3.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 25.6, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 90.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.1, "np_cagr3": 19.7, "rev_yoy": 2.9, "np_yoy": 1.9, "np_vol": 28.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.7, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 16.4, "fwd_pe2": 15.2, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": 8.0, "peg": 2.05, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["批发零售(药品)", 23.0], ["批发零售", 23.0], ["工业产品(自制)", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.8, "ret_prev2_year": 33.5, "ret_ytd": -7.5, "ret_pivot": 12.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.5, "ret_60": 0.9, "ret_120": -6.8, "ret_250": -7.9, "mdd_250": -18.5, "vol_250": 14.4, "pos_52w": 88.5}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 54, "hard": 12, "bondness": 78}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 90%、股息率 5.1%、营收 3 年复合 4.1%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.7%(经营现金流/市值 5.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.1%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 2.15 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.4 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -18%,年化波动 14%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 1% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「中药Ⅱ」68 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 57.5% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 64%。", "云南白药:PE 比行业中位低 5.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 30.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.9个百分点。"]}}